Estimating the properties of weathered bedrock and pilerock interaction from the geological strength index     

Chun-mei Zhou  Wei Shao  Kun-long Yin  Zong-ji Yang 《山地科学学报》2018,15(8):1757-1776

The effect of variable rock mass properties on pile-rock interaction poses a great challenge to the design of stabilizing piles and numerical analysis of pile-rock interaction. The paper presents a novel method to estimate the properties of weathered bedrock, which can be applied to routine design of landslide-stabilizing piles for collivial landslides. The Ercengyan landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China, is the area of interest for this study. A geological investigation and triaxial tests were conducted to estimate the basic parameters, including Geological Strength Index(GSI), uniaxial compressive strength σ_(ci) and Hoek-Brown constant m_i of intact bedrock in the study area. Hoek-Brown criterion was used to estimate mechanical properties of the weathered rock, including elastic modulus E_m, cohesion c, friction angle Φ, and normal ultimate lateral resistance p_(max). A parametric study was performed to evaluate the effect of parameterizations of GSI, σ_(ci) and m_i on the bedrock properties and p-y curves. The estimated rock mass properties were used with PLAXIS 2D software to simulate pile-rock interaction. Effect of GSI on stress at the pile-rock interface and in the rock, pile bending moment, pile shear force, and p-y curve were analysed.  相似文献   

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100     

J. M. Gregory  J. A. Church  G. J. Boer  K. W. Dixon  G. M. Flato  D. R. Jackett  J. A. Lowe  S. P. O'Farrell  E. Roeckner  G. L. Russell  R. J. Stouffer  M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   

A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts     

ANTJE WEISHEIMER  LEONARD A. SMITH  KEVIN JUDD 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2005,57(3):265-279

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Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario     

I. Lozano  R. J. N. Devoy  W. May  U. Andersen 《Marine Geology》2004,210(1-4):205-225

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.  相似文献   

我国东部邻海恶劣天气的时空分布及其成因初探   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈乾金  王伯民 《海洋预报》1993,10(1):10-19

本文利用1930～1979年NCDC海洋船舶观测的气象资料,分析了中国东部邻海恶劣天气的时空分布。结果表明,海区恶劣天气的分布在冬季和夏季是不同的;在东北和西南季风期间,台湾东北和西南海区也有差异。影响恶劣天气条件的分布因子非常复杂,主要是季风和极锋、天气系统、冷暖洋流及地形等因子。  相似文献   

基于MODIS资料反演海上能见度的经验模型     

钱峻屏  黄菲  王国复  刘万侠  崔祖强  郑志宏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2006,36(3):355-360

利用2002年10月~2003年8月的中分辨率成像光谱数据MODIS(ModerateResolutionImagingSpectrora-diometer)和华南沿海及海上能见度观测数据,对华南海域连续的、长时间序列的能见度遥感监测和定量反演进行了试验。将MODIS影像分为:晴空(Ⅰ);雾和低云(Ⅱ);有降水积云(Ⅲ)和其它(Ⅳ)4类,并按照通道间相关性最小和与大气水平能见度相关最大的原则进行通道筛选。初步分析表明,水平能见度确实与MODIS卫星表观反照率存在一定的函数关系。在此基础上,对每一类进行通道筛选和特征因子提取,建立分类的反演经验模型进行大气水平能见度的遥感反演,并与观测结果进行了比较。结果表明,在Ⅰ和Ⅲ类大气状况条件下,能见度的反演结果较好(相关系数分别达到0.6和0.9,远大于95%信度检验水平),而大气状况较为复杂的II类反演精度较低,相关系数只有0.5(仅达94.2%显著性检验水平)。由此可见,对于海上下垫面均一、而大气状况复杂的遥感反演问题,根据大气状况分类简化的统计反演是较为有效的1种方法。同时,对大气的辐射消光特性的了解和MODIS通道特性的分析,也是决定反演结果的重要因素。  相似文献   

末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因检测   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

姜大膀  梁潇云 《第四纪研究》2008,28(3):491-501

在国际古气候模拟比较计划设置的标准试验方案下,首先利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）模拟了末次盛冰期东亚气候状况,然后通过4组数值敏感性试验逐一模拟了大气CO₂浓度、海洋表面温度（SST）和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被变化4项强迫因子的单独气候效应,进而对末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因进行了检测。结果表明,末次盛冰期除华南局部略有升温外,中国年均地表气温显著降低,降温幅度总体上向北增大,青藏高原处存在一个降温中心。其中,SST和海冰变化是华南局部略偏暖的主因,它同时导致了东亚其他区域地表气温的显著降低,特别是在东北亚地区;陆地冰盖和地形变化对于东亚地表气温的显著冷却作用主要体现在东亚的西北部;大气CO₂浓度降低会引起东亚地区0.2～0.9℃的普遍降温;相对而言,东亚植被的降温作用（0.5～1.0℃）主要显现在中国40°N以南的区域。与此同时,SST和海冰变化能引起中国东部年均降水一定程度的减少,而大气CO₂浓度、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被单独变化均不会显著影响东亚年均降水的分布状况,然而,上述四项因子的共同变化会通过协同作用引起中国东部年均降水的显著减少,西部地区降水则与现在差别不大。此外,末次盛冰期东亚夏季风的显著减弱源于SST和海冰变化,冬季风变化则可归因于SST和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形的变化。  相似文献   

Coupling an ocean wave model to an atmospheric general circulation model     

Susanne L Weber  Hans von Storch  Pedro Viterbo  Liana Zambresky 《Climate Dynamics》1993,9(2):63-69

A coupled model, consisting of an ocean wave model and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), is integrated under permanent July conditions. The wave model is forced by the AGCM wind stress, whereas the wind waves modify the AGCM surface fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat. We investigate the following aspects of the coupled model: how realistic are the wave fields, how strong is the coupling, and how sensitive is the atmospheric circulation to the spatially and temporally varying wave field. The wave climatology of the coupled model compares favorably with observational data. The interaction between the two models is largest (although weak) in the storm track in the Southern Hemisphere. Young windsea, which is associated with enhanced surface fluxes is generated mostly in the equatorward frontal area of an individual cyclone. However, the enhancement of the surface fluxes is too small to significantly modify the climatological mean atmospheric circulation.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil  相似文献   

A fast response,open path,infrared hygrometer,using a semiconductor source     

A. E. Green  W. Kohsiek 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1995,74(4):353-370

Investigations were carried out as to the feasibility of using a semiconductor source in the design of a new rapid response, open-path hygrometer. A single-beam instrument was constructed employing an infrared light emitting diode (LED) as a source instead of the usual high energy, wideband filament. The spectral emission envelope encompassed the 1.87 m water absorption band. Electronic modulation and thermoelectrical cooling of the diode eliminated the conventional chopper wheel and stabilized the peak wavelength emission. Path length was 200 mm. Over a water vapour concentration range of 0–16 g m^–3, absorption varied by 2% in a linear fashion. At 10 Hz, the noise level was 0.1 g m^–3 rms. Hygrometer resolution and stability are constrained by the detector noise level, the small source emission in the absorption band and low frequency drift in the optical filter. Despite these problems, the new instrument showed comparable performance characteristics to a commercial Lyman- hygrometer. Latent heat fluxes measured with both instruments and a Kaijo-Denki, 3-D sonic anemometer agreed to within 4% over a range 0–350 W m^–2. Further improvements in performance can be anticipated with advances in detector and LED technology.  相似文献   

A comparative study of the performance of various vertical discretization schemes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

L. M. Leslie  R. J. Purser 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1992,50(1-3):61-73

Summary Most finite-difference numerical weather prediction models employ vertical discretizations that are staggered, and are low-order (usually second-order) approximations for the important terms such as the derivation of the geopotential from the hydrostatic equation, and the calculation of the vertically integrated divergence. In a sigma-coordinate model the latter is used for computing both the surface pressure change and the vertical velocity. All of the above-mentioned variables can diminish the accuracy of the forecast if they are not calculated accurately, and can have an impact on related quantities such as precipitation.In this study various discretization schemes in the vertical are compared both in theory and in practice. Four different vertical grids are tested: one unstaggered and three staggered (including the widely-used Lorenz grid). The comparison is carried out by assessing the accuracy of the grids using vertical numerics that range from second-order up to sixth-order.The theoretical part of the study examines how faithfully each vertical grid reproduces the vertical modes of the governing equations linearized with a basic state atmosphere. The performance of the grids is evaluated for 2nd, 4th and 6th-order numerical schemes based on Lagrange polynomials, and for a 6th-ordercompact scheme.Our interpretation of the results of the theoretical study is as follows. The most important result is that the order of accuracy employed in the numerics seems to be more significant than the choice of vertical grid. There are differences between the grids at second-order, but these differences effectively vanish as the order of accuracy increases. The sixth-order schemes all produce very accurate results with the grids performing equally well, and with the compact scheme significantly outperforming the Lagrange scheme. A second major result is that for the number of levels typically used in current operational forecast models, second-order schemes (which are used almost universally) all appear to be relatively poor, for other than the lowest modes.The theoretical claims were confirmed in practice using a large number (100) of forecasts with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre's operational model. By comparing test model forecasts using the four grids and the different orders of numerics with very high resolution control model forecasts, the results of the theoretical study seem to be corroborated.With 8 Figures  相似文献